Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
